Skip to main content

Ron from KC Lau : case study


This is a case stolen from kclau's blog, I am just busy body giving my view point without anyone asking ... so I apologize first for whatever offence I could have brought. But my intention is just to share my thoughts, nothing more than that.

Ron is 40 years old married with a 10 years old kid, earning $6,500 a month? He has 2 houses 800k with 470k loan and 300k renting for $850 monthly. 840k in KLSE and 460K in EPF. He is asking if (1) he can retire, (2) his kid education plan ok and if he should (3) sell his house to buy stocks ?

kclau basically says (1) yes he can retire, (2) his kid's education is at good hand and (3) don't sell house unless Ron is really good with stocks.


I only agree with (3) respond because a 840k KLSE has already out weight 300k property by almost 3x, so there is really no point to further make it imbalance.

My immediate respond reading Ron's story is that it sounds too familiar. Familiarity with an alarm that is.

I am guessing ....

Ron moved in to his new house only recently ( less than 8 years ). He wanted to get higher loan amount but couldn't due to his income level. He may feel financially quite capable but he also find himself selling his stock investments at times for cashing out purposes.

These are the signs of overspent without consciously knowing it.

A 460k loan, be it been served for a while or new, would take 2,500 to 4,000 repayment monthly. That is 40-60% of the income level. A dangerous level. If the 800k is a typical resident judge, then its an over price of 20-25%. One should use only force sale value when assessing ones' personal finance health level. As a result, this new beautiful home is the main killing point in his personal finance but in return he has a home that he wanted, emotion return is priceless. But due to the same fact, he can NOT retire now. Paying off this repayment amount alone will kill off all his stock investment return in no time. ( check out the fact that even a 12% return is NOT enough to cover a 3% )

The 2nd pit fall is education plan. In 8 years time, at best his 300k education fund may become a 500k fund. But in 2018, a general 4-years-oversea-tuition-fee starts with a minimum of 1 million and above. At age 48, he can't really withdraw from EPF in full yet. Honestly, with this 300k plan, Ron's kid can only have the option to go to a local university ... which even a 100k is adequate. Should Ron not realizing this fact and stop working now, he will lose out all his retirement fund and get back to work at his 50s if his kid does want to go oversea.

The good part is 840k KLSE fund. There may be a few things we can tell from this figure. Ron is most probably an accumulator, he buys and keeps and doesn't sell as much as he buys. Although this is good but on the other hand, if the 840k value is today's valuation then 840k is most probably not a RIGHT value to use to assess his finance health. If he is an accumulator, then he doesn't have a consistent profit take strategy. So by mid year, his value may drop to 600k etc. Basically just like property over valuation, Ron's 840k KLSE value is questionable.


So at the end, my take is that (1) Ron should NOT retire yet, just keep working but keep his option open because now he can freely change jobs as long as the salary stays the same or higher. (2) His kid cannot go to oversea university yet, if that is the option he wants to keep open, he will need to beef something up, ie. allocate his stock investment fund as educational purpose.

Along with other 'typical' assumptions, Its important for Ron to accumulate another 800k in his liquid asset to further strengthen his portfolio.

To further obtain a more precise analysis, Ron needs to identify his family expense ratio and his very own personal inflation rate. Then he should also quantify the true potential capital gain of his both properties. The 300k one will do fine but the 800k one will remain flat. Finally his KLSE strategies and portfolio will play a critical role in his future too.

Hey Ron! You did great ... but not good enough for 21st century. Buckle up and keep doing what you were doing, it seems great so far ...

Don't ignore kclau's last part in insurance advises, your choices are Terms, whole life or investment links. Just in case you hit a "lottery" ... you would want the things still go the way they are suppose to be ...

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Resep Membuat Arem Arem Isi Ayam Wortel Special

Arem Arem Isi Ayam Wortel - Arem-arem merupakan makanan serupa kue lemper yang digulung dengan daun pisang lalu diberi isi sambal goreng, sosis, mie goreng, ayam wortel dan sambal goreng. Untuk daun pisang, sebaiknya bunda memakai daun pisang kluthuk supaya hasil bungkusannya bagus saat dikukus. Dan sebelum daun pisang diberi nasi dan isi, hendaknya bunda menjemur daun pisang terlebih dahulu sekitar lima sampai sepuluh menit supaya daun pisang tidak robek saat diberi nasi dan isiannya.  Jika melihat sekilas, arem arem dengan lontong pasti akan terlihat sama karena sama sama dibungkus dengan daun pisang lalu di kukus sampai matang. Namun jika kita melihatnya dengan lebih teliti lagi maka akan terlihat jelas perbedaan arem-arem dengan lontong. Kalau arem-arem umumnya sama seperti lontong, hanya saja arem-arem didalam nasi terdapat isian daging cincang, atau sayuran. Cara membuat arem-arem dapat dibilang mudah dan bahan-bahannya juga terjangkau ditemukan seperti wortel dag...
Post a Comment
Read more

Cara Membuat Misoa Goreng Ekonomis Mudah dan Praktis

Cara Membuat Misoa Goreng - Misoa goreng merupakan salah satu makanan pokok yang dikreasikan menjadi jajanan atau snack ringan yang enak dan gurih. Memiliki bahan utama misoa yang dicampur daging giling, cincangan wortel dan daun bawang layaknya bakwan membuat misoa goreng menjadi gorengan yang special. Berbicara misoa, saat ini ada 2 cara membuat misoa goreng yang resepnya bertebaran di grup masakan Facebook, Instagram dan juga google. Salah satunya adalah misoa goreng yang dibuat seperti adonan bakwan yang langsung digoreng. Dan yang kedua adalah misoa goreng yang dibuat dengan cara dikukus terlebih dahulu, kemudian potong kotak adonan, celup ke dalam kocokan telur lalu di goreng ke dalam minyak panas yang cukup banyak. Seperti judulnya resep dan cara membuat misoa goreng ekonomis, saat ini kami akan membagikan salah satu resep misoa goreng andalan favorit keluarga yang proses pembuatannya tidak pakai ribet dan tentunya ekonomis, karena bahan-bahan yang digunakan disesuaikan ...
Post a Comment
Read more

21st century trick ...

Once upon a time, there was a gasoline called 97. The cost of this item was $1.80. One day, the governing body wanted to increase the price to $2.10. However, the governing body knows that if they simply increase price, that will affect their popularity. Which in turn affect their eligibility to continue to be governing body in next election. Hence they come up with a perfect idea. They first introduce another brand called 95. Actually this is a much lower quality product than 97. In short, 97 simply means there is at least 97% of pure petrol in the gasoline. On the other hand, 95 only has 95% purity. However, they push out 95 as if it is a better quality product. They even add some 'addictive' into 95 to justify their claim its a better product. It was presented in a way that 95 will replace 97, and stay at the same price at $1.80 More than 90% of the consumer fall for it. Hence the transition of 97 to 95 went through smoothly. Majority of the consumers pay the ...
Post a Comment
Read more